Return Analysis — Projekat ukupno
Investicioni model projekta. Operativni horizont 7 godina (Y0 land payment → Y6 likvidacija projekta) — Phase 1 (rezidencijalni, 60 mj) + Phase 2 (Biznis Hub, 24 mj, preklapa Phase 1). Svi parametri se mogu mijenjati u Edit model panel-u.
Industry Benchmark Scoreboard
Svaka ključna metrika upoređena sa industrijskim standardom za rezidencijalni razvoj u jugoistočnoj Europi. Klikni info ikonicu za objašnjenje šta metrika znači i kako se interpretira.
Risk & Scenarios
Šta se dešava ako stvari pođu loše? Tri industrijski-standardne analize za procjenu rizika projekta.
Sensitivity Analysis
Baseline IRR: 36.02%Pokaži detaljan tabelarni prikaz za sve faktore (−15%, −10%, −5%, +5%, +10%, +15%)
| Varijabla | −15% | −10% | −5% | Base | +5% | +10% | +15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales prices | — | 12.65% | 24.07% | 36.02% | 48.25% | 60.5% | 72.59% |
| Construction costs | 57.93% | 50.96% | 43.64% | 36.02% | 25.77% | 16.48% | 8.22% |
| Price appreciation | 31.62% | 33.1% | 34.57% | 36.02% | 37.46% | 38.88% | 40.28% |
| Soft costs | 39.21% | 38.15% | 37.09% | 36.02% | 34.56% | 33.1% | 31.67% |
| Brokerage fee | 36.13% | 36.1% | 36.06% | 36.02% | 35.99% | 35.95% | 35.92% |
| Land compensation | 36.02% | 36.02% | 36.02% | 36.02% | 36.02% | 36.02% | 36.02% |
| Discount rate (za NPV) | 36.02% | 36.02% | 36.02% | 36.02% | 36.02% | 36.02% | 36.02% |
Stress Test — Bear / Base / Bull
Bear case
bearSales prices −10%, construction costs +10%, slabiji price appreciation (×0.6). Pesimističan scenario.
Base case
baseTrenutni model. Baseline assumptions.
Bull case
bullSales prices +10%, construction costs −5%, jači price appreciation (×1.3). Optimističan scenario.
Break-Even Analysis — Margin of Safety
Margin na pad sales price-a
Koliko prodajne cijene mogu pasti prije nego što NPV bude 0?
Margin na rast construction costs
Koliko construction cost-i mogu porasti prije nego što NPV bude 0?
Project Overview
Lokacija, struktura zgrada i prodajna površina.
Plan lokacije
Hover na zgradu za detaljePhase 1 vs Phase 2 — construction split
Total construction €43.9MCapital Structure
Kako se novac troši (capex) i odakle dolazi (funding).
Use of funds
Capex breakdownSource of funds
Funding mix- Brokerage fee
- 0.3%
- Branding fee
- 0%
- Interest rate
- 5%
- Deal cost
- 2.4%
- Contingency for presales
- 0%
- NPV discount rate
- 11.2%
Phase 1 vs Phase 2 — P&L Comparison
Koja faza projekta nosi profit? Soft costs (€6.53M) i land (€1.07M) su alocirani proporcionalno construction shares.
Phase 1 — Residential
Phase 1Phase 2 — Business Hub
Phase 2| Stavka | Phase 1 | Phase 2 | Razlika |
|---|---|---|---|
| Construction cost | €17,652,226 | €26,252,764 | +€8,600,538 ↑ |
| Soft costs (alocirano) | €2,625,400 | €3,904,551 | +€1,279,151 ↑ |
| Land (alocirano) | €429,194 | €638,306 | +€209,112 ↑ |
| Total dev cost | €20,706,820 | €30,795,621 | +€10,088,801 ↑ |
| Contract sales | €17,140,564 | €44,334,630 | +€27,194,066 ↑ |
| Net sales (po brokerage) | €17,089,143 | €44,201,626 | +€27,112,484 ↑ |
| PROFIT | -€3,617,678 | €13,406,005 | +€17,023,683 ↑ |
| Profit margin | -17.47% | 43.53% | +61.00pp |
| Stanovi (apartments) | 131 | 0 | -131 |
| Net sellable m² | 6,367 | 10,621 | +4,254 |
| Avg sale price €/m² | €2,692/m² | €4,174/m² | +1,482 |
Cash Flow Timeline
Šest godina ulaganja, jedna godina povratka. Zelena linija je kumulativni cash flow; plavi/narandžasti pravougaonici su godišnji.
Prikaži detaljnu tabelu po godinama
| Stavka | Y0 | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 | Y6 | Y7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales (po brokerage) | — | 1,573,544 | 5,722,004 | 8,190,953 | 16,277,147 | 12,015,453 | 17,511,669 | — |
| Own funds (equity) | -1,067,500 | -2,521,747 | -5,043,495 | -327,827 | — | — | — | — |
| Pre-sales used | — | −0 | — | −8,750,462 | −14,121,783 | −19,669,627 | — | — |
| Net cash flow | -1,067,500 | -948,203 | 678,509 | -887,337 | 2,155,364 | -7,654,174 | 17,511,669 | 0 |
| Cumulative | -1,067,500 | -2,015,703 | -1,337,194 | -2,224,531 | -69,168 | -7,723,342 | 9,788,327 | 9,788,327 |
Buildings — Deep Dive
Detalji svakog objekta: struktura jedinica, površine, prodajna vrijednost.
Objekat 1
- Net prodajna
- 2,008.6 m²
- Neto objekat
- 2,270.2 m²
- Bruto objekat
- 2,605 m²
- Zauzetost
- 665 m²
Objekat 2
- Net prodajna
- 2,640.4 m²
- Neto objekat
- 3,016.9 m²
- Bruto objekat
- 3,395 m²
- Zauzetost
- 790 m²
Objekat 3
- Net prodajna
- 2,084.8 m²
- Neto objekat
- 2,361.1 m²
- Bruto objekat
- 2,770 m²
- Zauzetost
- 645 m²
Objekat 4
- Net prodajna
- 3,727.5 m²
- Neto objekat
- 4,114.2 m²
- Bruto objekat
- 4,770 m²
- Zauzetost
- 1,050 m²
HUB
- Offices 2-3F (shell&core)6,510 m² · €2,893/m²
- Offices 1F (shared)3,255 m² · €3,678/m²
- Retail ground floor2,535 m² · €3,678/m²
- Restaurant + Kitchen833 m² · €3,065/m²
- Commercial -1 underground3,130 m² · €925/m²
- Office -1 (low budget)350 m² · €2,314/m²
- Storage506 m² · €1,157/m²
- Garage (304 mjesta)11,810 m² · €16,529/uniti
Unit Economics
Procijenjeni prihod po tipu stana — investitor vidi koliko vrijedi svaki tip jedinice i koliki je doprinos ukupnom prihodu.
Jednosobni
70 stanovaDvosobni
48 stanovaTrosobni
10 stanovaČetvorosobni
3 stanovaBreak-even po jedinicama
Total Phase 1 procijenjeni prihod
Construction Costs — Phase 1 vs Phase 2
€43.9M ukupne konstrukcije. Phase 2 ima 49% više cost-a iako traje samo 24 mjeseca — Business Hub finishes su skuplji per m².
Phase 1 — Residential (60 mjeseci)
€17.65M| Stavka | GBA (m²) | €/m² | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Residential building | 11,233 | 975 | €10,952,175 |
Retail (shell and core) | 2,307 | 725 | €1,672,575 |
Garage (175 mjesta) | 6,986 | 636 | €4,443,096 |
Landscaping + infrastructure | 4,714 | 124 | €584,380 |
Phase 2 — Business Hub (24 mjeseca)
€26.25M| Stavka | GBA (m²) | €/m² | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Offices 2-3 floors | 6,510 | 925 | €6,021,750 |
Offices 1 floor | 3,255 | 1,294 | €4,211,970 |
Retail ground floor | 2,535 | 1,294 | €3,279,928 |
Restaurant ground floor + Kitchen -1 | 833 | 925 | €770,830 |
Commercial spaces -1 underground | 3,130 | 925 | €2,895,250 |
Square and atrium | 960 | 325 | €312,000 |
Fitting and furnishing | 2,200 | 425 | €935,000 |
Garage and services (304 mjesta) | 11,810 | 636 | €7,511,160 |
Landscaping + infrastructure | 2,540 | 124 | €314,876 |
Soft Costs Breakdown
€6.53M soft costs — Communal i Development Management dominiraju.
Komunalna naknada za nadzemni rezidencijalni + Biznis Hub dio. Cross-references stavku Placene komunalije za nadzemni rezidencialni i Biznis Hub dio iz Financial Plan tab-a — iste cifre.
€1.32M (3% × €43.90M construction). Industrijski standard je 5-10% — niži buffer ostavlja manje fleksibilnosti za nepredviđene troškove.
| Stavka | Iznos | % construction | Formula |
|---|---|---|---|
| Design | €1,000,650 | 2.28% | fixed value |
| Development and Project management | €1,536,675 | 3.5% | 3.50% × construction |
| Supervision | €307,335 | 0.7% | 0.70% × construction |
| Communal charges | €2,016,617 | 4.59% | fixed value |
| Marketing and sales | €219,525 | 0.5% | 0.50% × construction |
| Legal and permitting | €132,000 | 0.3% | fixed value |
| Contingency (3%) | €1,317,150 | 3% | 3.00% × construction |
| Total | €6,529,951 | 14.87% |
Sales Projection
Phase 1 (rezidencijalno, Y1-Y5) + Phase 2 (Business Hub, Y2-Y6). Cijene se uvećavaju 5% godišnje. Y7 = 0 jer su sve prodajne sheme završene do Y6.
Contract values po godini (€)
Sales Absorption Curve
Kumulativna prodajna vrijednost + brzina prodaje per godina. Industrijski indikator tržišne snage projekta.
Cumulative contract value (€M)
Aktivno 6 godina| Godina | Contract value | Cumulative | % absorption | Stanovi P1 | % sold (P1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y1 | €3,156,558 | €3,156,558 | 5.1% | 9 | 20.0% |
| Y2 | €7,297,014 | €10,453,572 | 17.0% | 11 | 45.0% |
| Y3 | €11,736,570 | €22,190,142 | 36.1% | 15 | 80.0% |
| Y4 | €9,669,083 | €31,859,225 | 51.8% | 4 | 90.0% |
| Y5 | €12,051,607 | €43,910,832 | 71.4% | 4 | 100.0% |
| Y6 | €17,564,362 | €61,475,194 | 100.0% | — | 100.0% |
| Y7 | — | €61,475,194 | 100.0% | — | 100.0% |
| Total | €61,475,194 | 100.0% | 43 | 100.0% |
NAV Evolution — Equity Build
Kada investitor "ulazi u plus" gledajući ne samo realizovani cash već i ugovornu vrijednost preostalu za realizaciju.
Prikaži tabelu NAV vs Cash flow po godinama
| Godina | Equity uloženo (cum.) | Realizovan cash | Ugovoreno preostalo | NAV (forward) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y0 | €1,067,500 | -1,067,500 | €61,290,769 | 60,223,269 |
| Y1 | €3,589,247 | -2,015,703 | €59,717,225 | 57,701,522 |
| Y2 | €8,632,742 | -1,337,194 | €53,995,221 | 52,658,027 |
| Y3 | €8,960,569 | -2,224,531 | €45,804,269 | 43,579,737 |
| Y4 | €8,960,569 | -69,168 | €29,527,121 | 29,457,954 |
| Y5 | €8,960,569 | -7,723,342 | €17,511,669 | 9,788,327 |
| Y6 | €8,960,569 | 9,788,327 | €0 | 9,788,327 |
| Y7 | €8,960,569 | 9,788,327 | €0 | 9,788,327 |
Risk Register & Heatmap
Kvalitativni rizici projekta sa probability × impact procjenom i mitigation strategy-jem. Investitor vidi gdje su slabe tačke i kako se mogu kontrolisati.
Heatmap (Probability × Impact)
Tamnija = veći prioritet
| Critical | ||||
| High | 1 | 1 | ||
| Medium | 1 | 3 | ||
| Low | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Low | Medium | High | Critical |
Pre-sales rizik
Pre-sales finansiraju 84% capex-a. Ako se ne prodaje dovoljno brzo, cash flow se zaustavlja.
Snažna pre-launch marketing kampanja, fleksibilan payment plan, ranjivost se može smanjiti uvođenjem bridge debt-a kao backup-a.
Construction cost overrun
Rast cijena materijala, kašnjenja izvođača, neočekivani geotehnički problemi.
Trenutni contingency od 3% je ispod standarda (5-10%). Preporuka: povećati buffer ili fiksirati ugovore izvođača sa cap-om.
Tržišni rizik — cijene stanova
Pad cijena nekretnina u regionu zbog makroekonomskih faktora (kamatne stope, recesija, geopolitika).
Diversifikacija segmenata (rezidencijalno + poslovno). Phase 2 daje izloženost komercijalnom segmentu koji se često ponaša kontracikli.
Sales pace / market absorption
Tržište može sporije apsorbovati ponudu od projektovanog tempa (20-35% jedinica po godini u Phase 1).
Etapna izgradnja i prodaja (Phase 1 prije Phase 2) ograničava izloženost. Mogućnost dugoročnog rentinga neprodanih jedinica.
Liquidity / funding gap
Projekat se oslanja samo na equity + pre-sales. Ako pre-sales kasne, nema backup-a osim equity calls.
Investitor mora držati liquidity buffer za eventualne equity calls. Razmotriti revolving credit liniju kao backup.
Phase 2 (HUB) — komercijalni rizik
Phase 2 (€26.25M) zavisi od potražnje za poslovnim prostorom — vacancy rate-i, raspoloživost zakupaca, hibridni rad uticaj.
Diversified mix (offices + retail + restaurant). Premium lokacija i 'business hub' branding. Mogućnost pre-leasing-a pre kraja izgradnje.
Concentration risk — 1 lokacija
Cijela investicija je u jednoj lokaciji. Lokalni rizici (infrastruktura, susjedni razvoj, prirodne nepogode) utiču na cijeli portfolio.
Osiguranje protiv prirodnih rizika. Diversification kroz druge investicije van projekta.
Regulativni / dozvolski
Promjene zakona o gradnji, urbanističkih planova, naknada za komunalije. Komunalije su €2.02M soft cost-a (najveća stavka).
Pribavljene sve potrebne dozvole prije početka. Legal & permitting buffer u soft costs (€132k). Praćenje regulative na lokalnom nivou.
Land compensation strukturno
88 stanova rezervisano za vlasnika zemljišta (kompenzacija u kind). Ako vrijednost rezervisanih jedinica raste, ostali kupci dobijaju manje.
Ugovor o kompenzaciji potpisan unaprijed. Tržišna fluktuacija ne mijenja broj jedinica koje su unaprijed određene.
Year-by-Year Detail
Sve cifre Y0–Y7 na jednom mjestu. Crveno = trošak, zeleno = prihod.
| Stavka | Y0 | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 | Y6 | Y7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross sales (pre-brokerage) | — | 1,578,279 | 5,739,221 | 8,215,599 | 16,326,126 | 12,051,607 | 17,564,362 | — |
| Net sales (po brokerage 0.3%) | — | 1,573,544 | 5,722,004 | 8,190,953 | 16,277,147 | 12,015,453 | 17,511,669 | — |
| Capex deployment | — | (2,521,747) | (5,043,494) | (9,078,289) | (14,121,783) | (19,669,627) | — | — |
| Equity (own funds) | -1,067,500 | -2,521,747 | -5,043,495 | -327,827 | — | — | — | — |
| Pre-sales used | — | -0 | — | -8,750,462 | -14,121,783 | -19,669,627 | — | — |
| Net cash flow | -1,067,500 | -948,203 | 678,509 | -887,337 | 2,155,364 | -7,654,174 | 17,511,669 | 0 |
| Cumulative cash flow | -1,067,500 | -2,015,703 | -1,337,194 | -2,224,531 | -69,168 | -7,723,342 | 9,788,327 | 9,788,327 |